We have acted as both buy and sell-side traffic advisors on airport transactions totalling more than $350bn. We are trusted for our expertise in passenger forecasting, aeronautical and commercial revenue projections, capacity planning and business strategy.
- Aviation Market Assessment & Due Diligence
- New Route Potential Forecasts
- Short to Medium-term Monthly Route and Airline level Forecasts
- Long-term Airport Traffic Forecasts
- Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts
- Regulatory Assessment
- Commercial Revenue Forecasts
- Operating Performance Forecasts
- Peak Hour Analysis and Forecasts
- Planning Day Schedule Forecasts
- Capacity Planning
- Stand Evaluation
Related Case Studies
Vienna VIE Airport, Austria
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Traffic Forecasts, Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts, Transaction Advice
Since 2014, Aviation Economics has provided detailed traffic forecasts, market assessments and regulated aeronautical revenue forecasts for IFM which resulted in the successful acquisition of a minority stake in Vienna Airport. As part of these forecasts, we looked at the passenger, cargo and general aviation forecasts, wider demographic and macro-economic factors driving the overall demand to/from the airport as well Austrian Airlines hub strategy. In 2020, the forecast was updated to reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, taking into account detailed market and airline-level assessment of the recovery across the short-term monthly traffic through the medium and long-term impacts.
New Istanbul IST Airport, Turkey
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Traffic Forecasts, Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts, Transaction & Management Traffic Advice
Aviation Economics was appointed by the project sponsors who won the concession to build the new airport in Istanbul. We have worked with the sponsors since 2013 providing inputs into the financial model for the airport in terms of both traffic and aeronautical revenues. We have also liaised with lenders providing debt financing for the airport. Over the past 7 years, Aviation Economics has supported the management in the provision of detailed traffic forecasting and market assessment work for the airport. More recently in 2022, Aviation Economics provided an update on the COVID-19 impact scenario for the refinancing transaction.
Sangley New Manila Airport, Philippines
Assignment: Market Assessment, Traffic Forecasts
Aviation Economics provided the wider catchment system forecast for passengers, cargo and movements for the Greater Capital Region (GCR) of Manila and identified Sangley Airport’s anticipated share of that traffic, with consideration given to the planned future development of other airport developments within the region such as Bulacan Airport. The project also included the development of planning day schedules for milestone years for the future forecast period.
New York JFK Airport, United States
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Traffic Forecasts, Aeronautical fee analysis
Aviation Economics worked with Ferrovial and its’ consortium partners in considering a bid for the concession for New York JFK Terminal 1. The work included providing a second independent opinion on two areas of the Business Plan, which include the traffic forecast and the proposed airline fee analysis.
Montreal Saint-Hubert Longueuil YHU Airport, Canada
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Annual Traffic Forecasts, Peak Forecasts, Aeronautical and non-aeronautical Forecasts
Commissioned by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) in 2023 to undertake the aviation market assessment, traffic forecast, aeronautical revenue and non-aeronautical revenue due diligence and forecast of a potential new commercial airport, Montreal Saint-Hubert Longueuil Airport YHU. MAM entered into a partnership with Porter Aviation to develop a new passenger terminal to provide an alternative gateway for the main Montréal–Trudeau International Airport YUL hub. The work conducted included the analysis of the domestic market potential as well as the development of Canada’s ultra-low cost airline market.
Batam Hang Nadim International BTH Airport, Indonesia
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Annual Traffic Forecasts, Peak Forecasts, Aeronautical Forecasts
Aviation Economics assisted the winning consortium in providing traffic and aeronautical revenue due diligence of Batam Hang Nadim International Airport. The work included providing a market assessment and traffic forecasts (primaries and secondaries) alongside aeronautical revenue projections, as well as providing a strategic view of the medium-term network development of the airport.
7 Hokkaido Airports, Japan
Assignment: Buy-side Market Assessment, Annual Traffic Forecasts
Engaged by the winning bidder, Hokkaido Airport Terminal Co Ltd (HKK) as part of the privatisation process of the airport and the awarding of the concession, to develop the long-term traffic forecast for each of 7 airports in the region, with a focus on New Chitose Airport. The project also included a detailed route development assessment, reflecting the underlying inbound market demand potential, providing the operator with a strategic plan for a full air services development program across the airport system.
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